美股如调整对A股影响有多大?
2021-09-17 17:35:41 来源： 浏览：1次
美股如调整对A股影响有多大?
壹 美元将走强
美联储很有可能在9月21、22日的议息会议后宣布缩减债券购买规模的决定。市场预期我国央行将在10月份降准。一紧一松，中美两国的货币政策将走向相反的两个方向。从汇率的角度看，如果美国收紧流动性，对美元是有上行推动力的。但美元上行的幅度会有多大呢？或者反之人民币贬值的幅度会在多少？我们在这次也许不一样中分析过：由于通胀的高企，美国的实际利率可能较长时间保持在较低水平，这也意味着美元的上涨将不会有较强的支撑。
贰 幅度也许有限
当然汇率不仅与货币流动性相对强弱有关，也受到两国经济增长的相对强弱影响。从经济增长的角度看，美国经济很有可能在3季度达到此轮增长的顶点，此后将会下行。而中国经济在今年3月份达到增长的顶点，此后就开始下行。从库存周期的角度看，美国经济的下行周期通常在12个月。因此，明年3季度大概率是美国经济的最低点。而从历史看，中国经济下行周期通常持续一到两年，因此经济增速的最低点最快有可能在明年2季度触及，最晚有可能在2023年达到（具体请参见2021年A股投资展望，其中对中美两国的库存周期有比较详细的论述）。所以，未来中美两国经济都可能处在下行阶段中。综合考虑，美元上行的幅度可能是有限的，意味着人民币贬值的空间也不会很大。
叁 中国支持性政策不断出台
近期国家出台各种政策以支持经济发展。社融增速可能在年底之前同比增速会持续下行，但广义货币同比增速触底应该是大概率事件。虽然未来随着经济增速再下台阶，广义货币有可能会再次突破8%的最低同比增速水平，但这应该是一个平缓的过程，近期不会看到。政策支持下，经济应不会太差，股市还有很多机会。
肆 美股和A股今年表现差异较大
进入9月份，各家投行纷纷下调标普500年底前的目标价，认为在新冠疫情的冲击下，美国经济将会走弱，美股年底前或面临10%左右的调整。但年初以来我国资本市场与美股的表现差异巨大，美股如调整对A股和港股市场的冲击应是有限的。
伍上周市场综述
上周A股和港股在全球涨幅居前。上证指数和深成指分别上涨4.2%和3.4%，在全球16个主要国家和地区指数涨幅居第2和第3位。美股道指连续下跌5天。
I.The US dollar would appreciate
Market now expects that the Federal Reserve would announce taper at the FOMC on Sept 22nd this year and begin to implement it before the end of this year. In the mean time many analysts predicted that the People's Bank of China would cut bank reserve rate in October to boost the slowing economy. So China and the US would diverge in monetary policy with the US to strengthen it while China to loosen it. In this case the US dollar would appreciate and the RMB would depreciate. In “This time could be different(这次也许不一样)” we have pointed out that due to the high inflation the real interest rate in the US might be maintained at low levels. Hence, the US dollar would not appreciate as much as previous.
II.Butnot that much
But how much the US dollar appreciates and the RMB depreciates also depends on the economy growth rate of the US and China. China’s economy reached its peak level in March this year and the US economy is expected to reach the top in 3Q2021. After that both China and the US economy would come down for some time. In the US the economy slow-down in an inventory cycle usually takes 12 months, i.e., the US economy would likely reach its lowest point of growth rate in 3Q2022. And China’s economy would take one or two years to get to the bottom, which is 1H2022 or early 2023. In short economy growth rate does not support a very strong US dollar as well as a very weak RMB.
III. A-share would not go down with the US stocks
Moreover, China has implemented many policies to stimulate economy. The broad monetary supply(M2) growth rate has been at a very low level and would not go further lower in the near term. Fiscal policies are becoming more accomodative. Recently many houses in the US downgraded SP 500 price target at the end of this year due to Delta variant and the likely taper.Yet year-to-date the US and China stock markets performed quite differently. We do not expect that the US market correction would have a negative impacton both A-share and HK stock markets.
IV.A-share and HK stocks led the global markets last week
Both A-share and HK stocks rose last week. Among the 16 major indexes globally Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index were ranked at the second the third in terms of rise range.
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